| You
may believe that professional traders have a huge advantage
over the average “homegamer” as Jim Cramer likes
to refer to the viewers of his very popular show on CNBC called
“Mad Money”. You probably think the pros have
a lot of advantages like top notch research and access to
high level executives at many listed companies. Well, thanks
to the internet, homegamers can now access that same research
and thanks to Regulation FD, which mandates fair disclosure
of all significant company information in a public forum like
an SEC filing or a press release, those cozy one on one meetings
are no longer legal although they probably still occur.
One
of the professional trader’s advantages is something
that you can easily adopt. It is called Money Management or
Risk Management. There is nothing exciting or sexy about it,
but without it you’re just gambling. I always recommend
Vegas for gambling. The casinos there will at least give you
a room, a meal and as many drinks as you can handle. Vegas
makes it fun to gamble and lose. Wall St. will give you nothing
but a quarterly statement reminding you that gambling does
not work. Money management is the crucial step of calculating
risk before entering every new investment or trade. In this
article, I am going to explain how any homegamer can implement
a money management system and start trading like a pro.
First,
you need to assess your own risk tolerance. Are you willing
to swallow large losses (greater than 2% of total account
size) on any given trade or investment? Maybe you are only
comfortable taking a ½ of 1% hit on any one idea. These
are preferences unique to each investor. The next step is
to set up the parameters for the trade. You need to be educated
and realistic about expectations both good and bad. Stop price
is the parameter you set usually based on analyzing a chart
of the stock you’re considering for an investment or
trade. The stop price could be a support level, a percent
retracement from a recent high or a confirmation of a bearish
chart formation. The idea of a stop price is to get you out
of a stock before it really goes against you in an unrecoverable
way. The target price is another parameter you set and is
usually based either on a fundamental analysis of the stock
to determine fair value or a technical analysis that uses
charts to predict where the stock could ultimately move to
before the momentum subsides.
For
example, let’s look at a potential investment in Microsoft
(Symbol MSFT).

The
stock has traded in a $4 range for a year. If you decided
to buy MSFT in October 2005 at $25 per share you can realistically
frame your trade using the $4 range. You could set your stop
price at $24 per share since that has shown to be a good support
level during 2005. You could set your target to be $28 per
share since that has been the top of the range for MSFT the
whole year. Now if you plug in the rest of your parameters,
let’s say 1% for risk tolerance, $100k for total account
size into a Position Size Calculator such as the one available
for free at www.BroadbandBrew.com
you will quickly see that you can safely purchase a maximum
of 1000 shares of MSFT and still adhere to your risk management
system. The Position Size Calculator is a calculator that
uses parameters you set to determine the correct number of
shares you should trade for each investment you are considering
as well as the risk/reward ratio and total profit potential
if your target is met. In the MSFT example the risk/reward
is actually pretty good at 3.0 ($3 up and $1 down). The total
profit for the trade is $3,000.00 (not including commissions)
which is a 12% gain. That’s not bad for a homegamer.
The
Microsoft example is one case. Now let’s look at another
trade, one with very different dynamics. TLT Put Options that
expire in 10 trading days. If you decided to buy this option
at $0.25 on 11/28 and hold till maturity, it could very well
be worth zero or several dollars. It actually was trading
at $0.55 just 2 days after your hypothetical purchase. That’s
over a 100% return in 2 days. You’re a genius or just
real lucky. It doesn’t matter as long as you managed
the risk.

How
does one manage this high level of risk you might ask? Exactly
the same way we did for the MSFT example. You could realistically
use zero as your stop loss since it’s unlikely you will
have a chance to stop out due to the extreme volatility. Using
the same 1% risk tolerance and $100k account size, the Position
Size Calculator comes up with 40 contracts, the maximum number
of contracts (options trade in contracts where one contract
leverages 100 shares) that you can safely buy and still adhere
to your risk management system. If you sold the options at
$0.55 you made $1200 (not including commissions) which is
a 120% return in two days. Once again, that’s not bad
for a homegamer.
I
bring up these very different trading examples to make this
point. By employing a risk management system, you can trade
pretty much anything without fear of depleting your account
beyond acceptable levels. Even if you lose, you will survive
to trade another day.
I
can’t stress enough the importance of risk management.
The winning investments always take care of themselves. It’s
the losing ones that cause homegamers problems. You just can’t
let one losing trade impact your entire account to the point
where getting back to even requires unrealistic returns.
It
is interesting that most amateur investors and traders focus
most of their efforts on investment selection and timing their
trades. They spend little or no time on money management.
Some always trade a fixed dollar amount while others use a
fixed % stop loss regardless of the varying dynamics of each
trade. If you don’t account for the different characteristics
of each investment or trade, you are either taking too much
risk or not enough. In the long run this will handicap your
performance.
There
are quite a few different position-sizing strategies that
you can use. Some work best with stocks, while others are
better suited for derivative trading (options, futures, etc…).
All of them are anti-martingale strategies where the size
of the position goes up as your account size grows. For a
much more in depth discussion of money management systems
and position sizing I recommend reading “Trade your
way to financial freedom” by Van K. Tharp.
Yes
you can trade stocks and options like a pro. You just need
to focus on managing risk the way professionals do. You need
to use position sizing models like the one employed by this
position sizing calculator, http://www.broadbandbrew.com/positionsizing_calc.htm.
You need to be consistent in applying your own risk tolerance,
and you need to have realistic parameters for each trade or
investment you consider.
Anatole
Raif is a professional trader and President and Founder of
BroadbandBrew.com, an investor service of MicroE Technologies,
LLC. For over sixteen years Anatole has specialized in identifying
and trading growth stocks in the short and intermediate-term
time frames. BroadbandBrew.com is home to traders and active
investors who are looking to benefit from working alongside
professional traders. Anatole can be reached at anatole@broadbandbrew.com. |